MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 030034
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030033=20
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-MSZ000-030230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0365
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Apr 02 2025

Areas affected...parts of srn IL...the MO Bootheel...srn/ern
AR...nwrn MS...wrn TN...wrn KY

Concerning...Tornado Watch 98...

Valid 030033Z - 030230Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 98 continues.

SUMMARY...A continued gradual increase in potential for damaging
surface gusts, and tornadoes associated with meso-vortices embedded
within the evolving mesoscale convective system, are expected
through 9-10 PM CDT.  Additional supercells posing a risk for strong
tornadoes still appear possible across parts of southeastern
Arkansas into the Greater Memphis area.

DISCUSSION...The narrow surface cold pool appears to have
strengthened along a corridor from Texarkana through Little Rock,
Batesville, AR and Poplar Bluff MO, where 2 hourly surface pressure
rises of 2-4 mb were sampled in the 00Z surface obs.  A meso low has
developed along the gust front near Cape Girardeau,  where a 2
hourly fall in excess of 3 mb was evident.  Another may be
developing near/west of Memphis, where another notable fall center
was evident (in excess of 2 mb in 2 hours).

The boundary-layer remains characterized by moderate potential
instability in a narrow corridor within the confluent low-level
regime across southeastern Arkansas toward the Greater Memphis area,
where additional discrete supercell development with potential to
produce a strong tornado remains possible.  Farther north into the
lower Ohio Valley this is becoming more unclear as the gust front
begins to overtake initially more discrete storm development.

Regardless, potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes with
evolving meso-vortices within the developing mesoscale convective
system are expected to continue a slow eastward progress across
southeastern Arkansas, and areas east of the Mississippi River into
lower Ohio Valley through 02-03Z.

..Kerr.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   33659273 34439189 35149111 35819050 36668981 37398938
            37808913 37818827 36928790 36118840 34399063 33459213
            33659273=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...155-190 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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