ACUS02 KWNS 031723
SWODY2
SPC AC 031721

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along the
Florida east coast into the North Carolina/Virginia Piedmont and
southwestern Pennsylvania. Additional severe thunderstorms are
possible across eastern New Mexico.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper cyclone will remain positioned over the OH/TN Valley
vicinity on Sunday. This will maintain a belt of enhanced mid/upper
south to southwesterly flow from FL to the Upper OH Valley. Further
west, a large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the
western states, while an upper low develops within the southern
branch of this system across the Southwest. As this occurs,
strengthening mid/upper south/southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.

At the surface, a weak low is expected across WV with a cold front
extending south across the VA/NC Piedmont and the SC/GA coastal
vicinity before arcing southwest across north FL and the eastern
Gulf. Additionally, a sea breeze is expected to develop during the
late morning into afternoon along the FL east coast. Modest boundary
layer moisture from the upper 50s to mid 60s F (higher dewpoints
with southward extent) will be in place ahead of the front. Across
the southern Rockies/High Plains vicinity, lee troughing will
modestly strengthen during the afternoon/evening. Richer moisture
will remain well to the south, but dewpoints in the upper 40s to low
50s F are forecast.

...Florida...

Cool temperatures aloft (-12 to -14 C at 500 mb) will support steep
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. Strong heating and low to mid 60s
F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will foster moderate
instability, with MLCAPE values topping out near 2000 J/kg. While
deep-layer flow will remain modest, effective shear near 25 kt and
vertically veering profiles will support at least transient storm
organization. Low-level convergence along the sea breeze and the
moderately unstable airmass should support isolated to scattered
robust updrafts. The strongest storms could produce marginally
severe hail and severe/damaging gusts. While low-level shear will
remain weak, sufficient moisture and 0-3 km MLCAPE amid small but
curved low-level hodographs suggests a brief tornado or two could
develop on the sea breeze boundary. Uncertainty regarding storm
coverage and longevity of strong updrafts precludes higher severe
probabilities at this time.

...Coastal GA/SC to southwest PA...

A modestly destabilizing airmass ahead of the surface cold front and
within the warm conveyor ahead of the upper low should support
thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Low-level flow will
remain light, but increase with height to around 50 kt at 500 mb,
supporting 25-35 kt effective shear across the region, and leading
to elongated/straight hodographs. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft
(-14 to -18 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates of 6.5-7
C/km. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may produce marginally
severe hail and gusty winds through early evening.

...New Mexico...

Despite meager boundary layer moisture, cool temperatures aloft will
support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization during
the afternoon/evening. Shortwave impulses ejecting through
increasing south/southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of the Southwest
upper trough/low, and low-level upslope flow will allow for
scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into the
afternoon. Strong vertical shear should support at least a few
organized cells despite modest instability, and isolated hail and
strong gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 05/03/2025

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