Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 22 2026 - 12Z Sat Oct 24 2026

...Conditions improve along the East Coast today as Subtropical Storm
Josephine moves farther out to sea...

...Excessive rainfall and severe weather impacts California, the
Southwest, and Four Corners...


Subtropical Storm Josephine begins to track farther away from the East
Coast and into the Western Atlantic today. NHC anticipates that Josephine
will likely transition to a Post-Tropical cyclone later today. A brief
period of storm force wind gusts (50+ kts) are possible near the ocean
waters southeast of Nantucket. Inland areas of southern New England could
see gusts closer to 20-45 mph. Beach erosion remains possible due to
strong onshore winds and large waves. Conditions are expected to improve
across the broader Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Coast today.

A deep upper-level trough will enter the Western U.S. today. This system
will pull very anomalous tropical moisture and spread it out over
Central/Southern California, the Great Basin and Four Corners regions
today. A cold front at the surface will move through the interior West and
act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Heavy
rainfall is expected across the Four Corners with the heaviest
precipitation occurring over southern facing terrain. A moderate risk (at
least 40% chance) of excessive rainfall is in effect for portions of
southern Utah into southwestern Colorado. A broader slight risk (at least
15% chance) is in effect across the Four Corners states and into southern
Nevada. Dry washes, slot canyons and burn scars are especially susceptible
to flash flooding. The excessive rainfall threat shifts into the
Southern/Central High Plains on Friday and Saturday.

Some instability may work its way into the Four Corners and Southwest,
which could support severe thunderstorms, although the greater threat for
severe storms will likely be over southeastern Arizona and into
southwestern New Mexico, where a slight risk (level 2/5) of severe weather
was issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Hail and severe wind gusts are
possible. Heavy Snow is also possible for parts of the southern Sierra
Nevada Mountains and Intermountain West/Colorado Rockies today. This
threat shifts into the Northern Rockies on Friday behind a new surface low
pressure system that intensifies while diving south through the Northwest.

Temperatures will be below average in the West thanks to the unsettled
weather. An amplifying upper-level ridge will promote above average to
well above average temps with some record minimums possible over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest. Surface high pressure over
the East will support clear skies as well as average to below average
temperatures through this weekend. Freeze and frost are possible for many
areas given the clear skies overnight. Shortwave energy will dive into the
Florida Peninsula tonight and generate showers and thunderstorms for
southern portions of the state over the coming days, with some potential
for excessive rainfall emerging by the weekend.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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