ACUS02 KWNS 090558
SWODY2
SPC AC 090556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Aug 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADA ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO PARTS OF MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of eastern
Colorado across southern Kansas and into northern Missouri. Hail may
occur over western areas, with locally strong gusts over eastern
areas.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
On Sunday, a relatively weak and broad upper trough will exist
across the central and northern Plains, with modest southwest flow
aloft averaging 20-35 kt extending from CO/KS into the upper Great
Lakes. While winds aloft will not be particularly strong, 500 mb
temperatures to -10 C will extend as far south as northern NM and
OK.

At the surface, high pressure will exist over much of the
Intermountain West and into the central Plains. A boundary will
stretch roughly from the TX Panhandle into northern MO/IL, with
eastern parts of the boundary associated with early day storm
outflow.

Two primary areas of isolated severe potential will exist. One will
be from northern MO into eastern KS, south of the composite front
and where daytime heating and 70s F dewpoints will lead to over 3000
J/kg MUCAPE, with lightly veering winds with height. The result will
be evolving/propagating areas of storms with locally strong wind
gusts during late afternoon and into the evening as southerly winds
increase at 850 mb.

The other area will be along the Front Range during the late
afternoon, and extending east/southeast near the boundary into
southern KS. Here, easterly surface winds in the post-frontal regime
over CA and cool temperatures aloft combined with 30 kt midlevel
southwesterlies may favor initial cells with hail. With time,
activity should aggregate outflows with sporadic severe gusts
possibly into KS or parts of the OK/TX Panhandles.

..Jewell.. 08/09/2025

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