MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 221240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221240 
AZZ000-221445-

Mesoscale Discussion 2396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of central/eastern Arizona...near and
south of the Mogollon Rim

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691...692...

Valid 221240Z - 221445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 691, 692 continues.

SUMMARY...A period of intensifying thunderstorm development,
including a couple of evolving supercells with potential to produce
large hail, locally damaging wind gusts and at least some risk for a
tornado, still appears possible through 7-9 AM MST.

DISCUSSION...Strongest recent thunderstorm development has been
focused near and just south of the Mogollon Rim, east of Phoenix
northward into the Show Low vicinity.  However, objective analysis
indicates that a corridor of better boundary-layer instability
lingers to the west, south/southwest of Flagstaff into the Greater
Phoenix area, where surface dew points have increased a bit into the
upper 60s F, as a prominent upstream mid-level trough axis slowly
pivots toward the region.  Associated forcing for ascent, coupled
with at least some boost to potential instability (including
near-surface buoyancy) associated with the gradual onset of diurnal
heating, could still support a period of intensifying thunderstorm
development through 14-16Z.  In the presence of strong continuing
deep-layer shear, this may including evolving supercells posing a
risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a risk
for a tornado or two.

..Kerr.. 10/22/2026

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33751216 34431241 35161175 34451035 33950969 32901065
            33141202 33751216 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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