Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
408 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 23 2026 - 00Z Sun Oct 25 2026

...Excessive rainfall and severe weather impacts California, the
Southwest, and Four Corners...

...Developing low pressure system ushers in much cooler weather over the
Central U.S. this weekend...

This afternoon, radar and satellite show bands of showers and
thunderstorms expanding across the Western U.S. ahead of a deep upper-low
centered over California. A busy afternoon for excessive rainfall and
severe weather is underway for much of the region as this activity taps
into a tropical airmass being pulled northward ahead of a Desert Southwest
cold front. Through tomorrow morning, numerous to widely scattered
instances of flash flooding and severe weather are expected over the Four
Corners and portions of the Southwest, respectively. The threat for heavy
rainfall and severe weather will slowly migrate eastward into New Mexico
and the Southern Plains over the next 48 hours with the cold front.

Concurrently, a lee-side cyclone is forecast to develop over the Northern
High Plains with the arrival of an upper-trough from the Northern Pacific.
By late Friday, temperatures in the Northern Rockies will begin to crash
behind a strong cold front sliding down the terrain. Accordingly, a
transition from rain to snow could lead to a few inches of snowfall in
this area, where a handful of Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. As
the low deepens and the front sweeps across the Heartland this weekend,
temperatures could cool by 20-25 degrees, putting an end to the unusually
warm weather.

Asherman/Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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