141 
FXUS64 KMRX 221734
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
Issued by National Weather Service Nashville TN
134 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 131 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Early morning patchy fog potential continues near rivers and lakes.

- Dry weather dominates the forecast period, with cool mornings
  and pleasant afternoons each day. Afternoon relative humidity
  will remain on the lower side as well, but light winds will
  prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Clear skies have taken over across CWA after a little fog was seen 
earlier this morning near TRI and across our southern counties. High 
pressure continues to dominate our forecast for the foreseeable 
future. This spells temperatures a degree or two above normal during 
the afternoons and cooler mornings with patchy fog. The biggest 
challenge over the next several days will be dew points and dry air 
aloft mixing down to the surface pushing RH values lower than what 
NBM guidance would otherwise suggest. As far as fire weather goes, 
the saving grace of light winds throughout the period will mitigate 
any great concerns. As dry as it is and has been, we'd be having a 
widespread fire danger if it wasn't for these light winds.

Where's all the precipitation? Well, it currently resides out west, 
especially over the Four Corners region and is being blocked from 
getting to us by this high pressure over the center of the country. 
Long range guidance would suggest that this blocking pattern will 
start to break down by the middle of next week with our first chance 
of rain potentially getting to us by next weekend -- just in time 
for Halloween. While that sounds ghoulish, that solution is only in 
the GFS. The Euro keeps us dry right through Halloween weekend. For 
now, enjoy this consistently comfortable weather. It's bound to end 
eventually.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Mostly VFR conditions with light winds. The only exception looks
to be a short period of IFR vis at TRI before sunrise tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, high pressure will continue to dominate the
forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             46  73  46  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  43  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       44  71  41  73 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              37  70  38  69 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...UNGER/OHX
AVIATION...UNGER/OHX


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