Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 23 2026 - 12Z Sun Oct 25 2026

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains and Southwest on Friday, the Southern Rockies on Saturday, and
the Central/Southern High Plains on Saturday and Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Southeastern
Florida on Saturday and Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southwest/Southern Rockies on Friday and Saturday...

An upper-level trough, roughly over the Great Basin, will evolve into an
upper-level low over Southern California and the Southwest by Saturday and
will be quasi-stationary through Sunday morning. Moisture from the Gulf of
California will stream into the Southwest/Southern High Plains, producing
showers and severe thunderstorms on Friday. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains and the Southwest through early Saturday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Rain will also
develop over the Northern Intermountain Region, parts of the Great Basin,
and higher elevations, with wet snow through Friday evening. Showers and
thunderstorms will also develop over parts of the Great Basin,
Central/Southern Rockies, and Central/Southern High Plains.

In addition, the storms will produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains and Southwest on
Friday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over Central/Southern High
Plains on Saturday. Likewise, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains and
Southern Rockies on Saturday into Sunday morning. Heavy rain will also
continue; therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern High Plains and Southwest on Saturday. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars
the most vulnerable.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Central/Southern High
Plains on Sunday. However, the threat of severe thunderstorms will
decrease slightly. In contrast, the heavy rain will continue over the
region on Sunday.

Meanwhile, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Florida s east coast. Accordingly,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
these thunderstorms over parts of southern Florida on Saturday and Sunday.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.

A front moving out of the Northern Intermountain Region overnight Friday
will move into the Plains on Saturday and the Upper Great Lakes by Sunday.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday. By Saturday
morning, rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Upper Midwest. By Sunday morning, rain will develop over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains and into the Upper Great Lakes. Moreover, most of
the Northeast will be dominated by high pressure through Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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