MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 031912
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031911 
KYZ000-032115-

Mesoscale Discussion 0379
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 PM CDT Thu Apr 03 2025

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 107...

Valid 031911Z - 032115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 107 continues.

SUMMARY...Storms across eastern Kentucky continue to pose a threat
of damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Sustained low-level warm-air advection continues to
support thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky.  Afternoon insolation
and a narrow axis of better moisture (upper 60s dewpoints) extending
into eastern Kentucky have resulted in MLCAPE values approaching
1000 J/kg. The deep-layer flow and shear (over 50 kts per
mesoanalysis and local VWPs) are more than sufficient for organized
storm modes.  Currently, the dominant convective mode of north-south
oriented bands along the differential heating zone seems to favor
severe-wind potential at this time; however, the strong low-level
shear would support tornado potential pending a more favorable
convective mode.

..Jirak.. 04/03/2025

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...

LAT...LON   37058597 37458492 37808397 37838326 37858314 37768271
            37498253 37238280 37158316 37078347 36998401 36778495
            36728558 36728576 37058597 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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