AWUS01 KWNH 101804
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-110003-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0894
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast AZ & NM

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101803Z - 110003Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms have begun to form as CIN
erodes across portions of southern AZ and southern NM.  Hourly
rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...GOES-18 and GOES-19 Veggie Band imagery along with
trends in SPC mesoanalyses indicate CIN erosion across the region,
with isolated showers and thunderstorms developing.  The region is
diffluent aloft at the base of an upper level trough and not far
to the northeast of an MCV approaching the central Mexico/AZ
border. Precipitable water values of 0.5-1.2" lie across the
region.  ML CAPE has built quite a bit across southern AZ, with a
few areas with 2000+ J/kg.  ML CAPE has been starting to build as
of late across NM, but isn't especially high at the present time
with a couple pockets of 500-1000 J/kg.  Flow at 850 and 700 hPa
is west to northwest at 10-20 kts.

The mesoscale guidance shows a broadening and intensifying of
convection as time marches on this afternoon.  ML CAPE could
increase an additional 1000 J/kg or so in areas where convection
holds off on visiting.  The low-level flow should pin convection
across southeast AZ, making it difficult for activity in the
mountains to march into lower elevations.  However, the incoming
MCV could cause convection to break out in lower elevations close
to the AZ/Mexico border.  Convection should show a tendancy to
move east to southeast today.  Given the moisture and building
instability, hourly amounts to 2" with local amounts to 4" where
cells manage to train or merge are considered possible.  This
rainfall would be most problematic in urban areas, dry
washes/arroyos, and areas with burn scars.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON   34680667 34370564 32470519 31650610 31150884 
            31131104 31881210 33561077 33990946 

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