AWUS01 KWNH 101853
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-110051-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0895
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...in and near southern MO & southeast KS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101851Z - 110051Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms developing across southeast MO
& northwest AR are expected to give way to new activity to the
west and northwest with time as CIN erodes and the low-level
inflow backs.  Hourly amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" possible.

Discussion...The combination of a surface trough and outflow
boundary have generated new convection with heavy rain across
portions of southeast MO.  Precipitable water values are 1.75-2"
per GPS data.  An ML CAPE gradient exists across portions of
southwest MO and southern KS, with 3000-4000 J/kg existing in the
instability pool in northeast OK.  An area of effective bulk shear
of 25-40 kts is approaching from the west.  CIN is eroding from
east to west across the region.

As CIN erodes, the primary foci for new convection are expected to
be along or near the outflow boundary in southeast KS and
southwest MO, from east to west as the 850 hPa inflow backs, as
well as closer to the incoming front which is through the Kansas
City MO/KS metro area.  Given the ingredients in place, hourly
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible.  Most of the
region has received minimal rainfall over the past week, so widely
scattered impacts are expected primarily with urban areas and
sections of the Ozarks.

Roth

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38919038 37439093 35729329 36419536 36789617 
            37259680 37879624 38679446 

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