MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 102153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153 
COZ000-NMZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1923
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Colorado to far northeast New Mexico

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585...

Valid 102153Z - 110000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 585 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms continue to increase in coverage and
intensity across the Colorado High Plains. The best potential for
significant hail may emerge across north-central/northeast Colorado
over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows multiple supercells
gradually intensifying across north-central CO with more isolated
coverage with southward extent towards the CO/NM border. Recent
surface observations show easterly flow ahead of a diffuse frontal
zone across northeast/northern CO, which is helping to regionally
enhance deep-layer wind shear to around 40 knots and is also
advecting slightly higher-quality low-level moisture in from
northwest KS/southwest NE (dewpoints in the low 60s). This somewhat
better moisture is supporting a zone of MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg immediately downstream of the intensifying storms. As
such, a corridor exists across north-central to northeast CO that
should be favorable for supercell development and maintenance. 

Upscale growth is anticipated later this evening as storm
interactions increase, but the exact timing remains somewhat
uncertain. Until then, discrete to semi-discrete supercells will
continue to pose a large hail risk, possibly as large as 2 inches
given the thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Further south to
the NM border, slightly less favorable thermodynamics (lower MLCAPE
and lingering MLCIN) casts some uncertainty on storm coverage and
intensity, but buoyancy and wind profiles remain supportive of
supercells with an attendant hail/severe wind risk.

..Moore.. 08/10/2025

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...ABQ...

LAT...LON   36840489 38130455 39390444 40300457 40690472 40910455
            41010403 40920329 40560279 40030257 39470254 38840262
            37320311 36920341 36740390 36650425 36630452 36660475
            36840489 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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