MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 102210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102209 
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1924
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0509 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS...southwest MO...far northeast OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102209Z - 110015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms may develop into early evening.

DISCUSSION...Storm initiation appears to be underway across
southeast KS late this afternoon, in the vicinity of a surface
boundary. Strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg) will
support potential for vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flow is
relatively modest, though veering wind profiles near/north of the
boundary are resulting in effective SRH of around 100 m2/s, and at
least transient storm organization will be possible given the
magnitude of instability. A threat for isolated large hail and
strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, and a
tornado cannot be ruled out given the potential for storm/boundary
interactions. There may be a tendency for storms to quickly become
outflow dominant within the rather weak flow regime, which could
limit the longevity of individual storms and keep the severe threat
relatively isolated. 

Initial storms may remain focused across southeast KS and southwest
MO, but guidance generally suggests potential for backbuilding
toward south-central KS and far north-central OK with time this
evening, as low-level warm advection gradually increases near/north
of the boundary within a strongly unstable and weakly capped environment.

..Dean/Guyer.. 08/10/2025

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36739750 36659816 37219832 37839798 38439614 38469336
            38469249 37759226 37189395 36899552 36799687 36739750 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

$$
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