Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 24 2026 - 12Z Mon Oct 26 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central/Southern High Plains and Central/Southern Rockies on Saturday
and Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
Southeastern Florida on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southwest/Southern Rockies on Saturday...

An upper-level low over Southern California and the Southwest by Saturday
and will be quasi-stationary through Sunday morning. Moisture from the
Gulf of California will stream into the Southwest/Southern High Plains,
producing showers and severe thunderstorms. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains and the Southwest through early Sunday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High
Plains and Central/Southern Rockies on Saturday. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most
vulnerable.

Overnight Saturday, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore
over the Pacific Northwest, producing rain over parts of the Pacific
Northwest late Saturday night and early Sunday. The rain will continue
over the region through Monday.

Moreover, on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will
continue to develop over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern High
Plains. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Also on Sunday, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rain over the eastern coast of Florida.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the eastern coast of
Florida. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

By Monday, the threat of excessive rainfall will decrease to a Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains
and Florida.  The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of
flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy
rain.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)