ACUS02 KWNS 240521
SWODY2
SPC AC 240519

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, posing mainly a risk for
hail, are possible on Sunday across southern/eastern New Mexico and
far west Texas.

...Southern/Eastern NM into Southwest TX...

The upper cyclone and attendant trough over UT/AZ early Sunday will
weaken as it lifts northeast toward the central Plains through early
Monday. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper
flow will persist across portions of the southern Rockies and
adjacent High Plains. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary is
forecast from central NM northeastward into the central Plains.
Southeasterly low-level flow on the warm side of the boundary will
maintain 50s F dewpoints across the region. 

Cloudiness and possibly ongoing showers/thunderstorms early in the
period lend to uncertainty regarding degree of daytime heating and
thus, destabilization. Nevertheless, modest instability is expected
amid vertically veering/supercell wind profiles. Elongated
hodographs and cool temperatures near -10 to -12 C at 500 mb suggest
isolated hail will be possible with strongest storms.

..Leitman.. 10/24/2026

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