Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 25 2026 - 00Z Tue Oct 27 2026

...A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall from portions of New Mexico to
southern Colorado and nearby High Plains through Saturday night, shifting
slightly eastward into the southern High Plains on Sunday...

...A Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms from western Texas to southern
New Mexico through Saturday night...

...Heavy rain and excessive rainfall threats linger near the east coast of
Florida Peninsula...

An amplified weather pattern featuring a deep upper-level low over the
Desert Southwest sliding eastward against a strong ridge of high pressure
anchoring across the South will continue to feed subtropical moisture into
the southern Rockies and southern High Plains through the next couple of
days. Under this pattern, New Mexico will remain under the threat of
additional heavy rainfall from organized lines of showers and
thunderstorms through tonight. Areas receiving antecedent heavy rain are
the most vulnerable to flash flooding. In addition, the Storm Prediction
Center is highlighting areas from western Texas to southern New Mexico for
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight. By Sunday, the
heavy rain threat is forecast to shift only slightly to the east into the
southern High Plains under this slow-moving weather pattern. From Sunday
night into Monday, a low pressure wave is forecast to form over the
central High Plains and move northeast toward the northern Plains. A swath
of rain will gradually overspread the northern Plains, with embedded
thunderstorms ahead of the low pressure center, bringing 1 to locally 2
inches of soaking rain area-wide by Monday evening. The low pressure wave
will also drag colder air from the north, which could change the rain to
wet snow across the western portion of the Dakotas beginning Monday
morning.

Meanwhile, persistent easterly flow on the south side of a large and
strong high pressure system under the slow-moving weather pattern will
continue to feed Atlantic moisture toward the Sunshine State. This will
maintain a threat of heavy rainfall for the east coast of the Florida
Peninsula. WPC highlights a slight risk of excessive rainfall for
southeastern Florida on Sunday, lowering to a marginal risk on Monday.

Across the Pacific Northwest, a low pressure system is forecast to move
onshore and bring a round of rain area-wide, with embedded thunderstorms
possible on Sunday. The rain is expected to penetrate further inland
across Oregon, reaching into Idaho on Monday.

Elsewhere, under the amplified and slow-moving weather pattern, cooler
than normal temperatures are expected to prevail along the East Coast and
down into portions of the Gulf Coast states. In contrast, return flow from
the south will bring much above normal temperatures up the Plains states
and into the Midwest toward the Great Lakes through the next couple of
days. Meanwhile, dry weather will prevail across the Southwest.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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