ACUS02 KWNS 120529
SWODY2
SPC AC 120528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
The evolution of an organized cluster of thunderstorms accompanied
by strong to severe wind gusts appears possible across parts of
central through eastern South Dakota by Wednesday evening.

...Discussion...
As a low-amplitude shortwave trough progresses over the northern
Rockies, a surface low will develop into southern SK, with a
secondary low into western SD late in the day. Southerly low-level
winds will develop over the Plains, with increasing 850 mb winds of
40-50 kt overnight from NE into SD.

Initially, the air mass will be relatively dry. However, a plume of
60s F dewpoints will materialize across the mid MO Valley, with
strong heating over the High Plains a near the surface trough.

Storms may develop near 00Z over parts of SD near the Black Hills
and near the surface low/lapse rate plume, with an initial hail
risk. With time, storms should produce strong outflow, with a few
severe gusts possible. Due to limited moisture, capping will become
a mitigating factor after 00Z, and may preclude a more robust MCS.
As such, a Marginal Risk remains valid for primarily isolated severe
activity withing the broader zone of convection.

..Jewell.. 08/12/2025

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