AWUS01 KWNH 131205
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-131630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0923
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
804 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 131204Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...Locally concentrated bands of showers and thunderstorms
with high rainfall rates will continue this morning across
portions of southern AL and the western FL Panhandle. Areas of
flash flooding will be possible, and especially for the more
urbanized locations.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES_E IR satellite imagery along
with surface observations shows a well-defined low-level vort
center and a fairly sharp surface trough advancing
east-northeastward to the east of Mobile Bay. This energy
continues to foster some deep convection around its southern flank
as very moist, convergent and unstable low-level flow advects
inland off the nearby Gulf of America and into portions of
southern AL and the western FL Panhandle.

MLCAPE values of 1500+ J/kg are pooled up across the western FL
Panhandle with PWs of 2.25+ inches, and this region in particular
will tend to be the primary focus area for additional bands of
convection over the next few hours. Rainfall rates up to 2
inches/hour are expected to continue, and some additional storm
totals amounts of up to 3 to 5 inches will be possible given
localized cell-training concerns with these bands of convection
that cross the Gulf Coast and advance inland.

Some locations that will likely be impacted by heavy rainfall this
morning include the Pensacola to Panama City corridor, and there
may be some localized urban flooding concerns that materialize.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   31338613 30878515 30278497 29848528 30298638 
            30208758 30368800 30988802 31288733 

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