523 
FXUS64 KMRX 251845
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
245 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Dry weather will continue over the forecast period with cool 
  mornings and mild afternoon highs. 

- Low relative humidity values in the 30s to upper 20s are also 
  expected most days but with light winds overall. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 244 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Early Sunday afternoon temperatures are warming into the 70s under 
mostly sunny skies for another excellent Autumn day. There isn't 
much change over the next several days as the forecast more or less 
stays the same. Winds will be generally light and variable over the 
next few days under the high pressure. One consideration is that we 
will have efficient mixing that will support RH's to fall into the 
25 to 35 percent range. Fortunately for us, fire weather concerns 
will be limited given the light/variable winds in this weather 
pattern. 

Our attention turns to the end of the week into next weekend. Our 
upper level ridge will begin to flatten and lose influence over the 
eastern US. Upstream, a series of weak shortwaves will move through 
the Great Lakes region and allow moisture to return to increase. 
This trend of an earlier weakening of the ridge & surface high 
pressure will lead to a chance of isolated showers Saturday evening. 
This weekend will be split Sunday will be the Trick and Saturday 
should be the treat. Given the residual low level dry air in place, 
Halloween will not be a wash out. Worst case scenario will be a few 
sprinkles or very isolated showers across portions of the valley. In 
fact, the overcast skies will help set the mood for a great night of 
trick or treating! 

Sunday, the trick, will be a rather crummy day as the slug of 
moisture tied to the system moves into the region. There is an 
increasing signal for a rather widespread rain event Sunday across 
guidance. It doesn't look like a ton of rain, but it should be 
enough for everyone to get a tenth or two as the pattern begins to 
transition to a more active look into early November. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 113 PM EDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A sprawling high pressure will persist through the TAF period. 
VFR conditions throughout the period with mostly sunny skies, and
light winds or calm conditions can be expected. TRI may see patchy
fog develop just prior to sunrise Monday morning. Future TAFs will
tweak as necessary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             47  73  48  76 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  45  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       45  73  46  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              40  71  42  75 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BH


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