AWUS01 KWNH 131236
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-131800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0924
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
835 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Areas affected...Portions of Central to Northeast TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 131235Z - 131800Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving bands of heavy showers and thunderstorms
over portions of central to northeast TX should foster at least an
isolated threat for flash flooding going through midday.

DISCUSSION...The early morning GOES-E IR/WV satellite imagery
shows a well-defined mid-level vort center/shortwave gradually
crossing central to northeast TX which coupled with a surface
trough is helping to foster a broken axis of slow-moving shower
and thunderstorm activity.

Much of the convection is somewhat elevated, but is also focusing
within a convergent low-level flow regime around the southern
flank of the vort energy. MUCAPE value of 1000 to 2000 J/kg are
noted, with PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches helping to support rainfall
rates of up to 2.5 inches/hour with some of the stronger storms.

Weak and somewhat variable upwind propagation vectors are noted
around the southern flank of the vort energy, and this suggests an
environment that is conducive for backbuilding and locally
training showers and thunderstorms. Given this and the cooling
cloud top trends, this activity is likely to persist for at least
the next few hours across areas of northeast TX in particular.

Recent HRRR guidance suggests locally an additional 3 to 5 inches
of rain, and these additional rains are likely to result in
scattered areas of flash flooding going through midday.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   33639463 32899395 31729491 31389691 31899810 
            32479795 32759622 

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