ACUS01 KWNS 251240
SWODY1
SPC AC 251238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible over parts of south-central
Arizona this afternoon through early evening. Otherwise, the
potential for severe storms is low across the remainder of the
continental U.S.

..Synopsis...
A large upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
eastern CONUS today. High pressure, currently analyzed across the
northern Plains early this morning will expand slowly southward
through the day which will push the polar front off the Atlantic
coast and perhaps into the Gulf. A persistent upper-level ridge will
exist across the Southwest and into the Great Basin/Rocky Mountains.
Beneath this ridge, a continued monsoon push will result in
widespread thunderstorm activity this afternoon/evening.

...Southern Arizona...
Thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon/evening across
much of the Southwest amid weak to moderate instability (1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures cool aloft. A belt of stronger
mid-level southeasterly flow (20-25 kt) is forecast to overspread
the region and provide ample shear for some multicell storm
clusters. Initial storms which are expected to form across the
higher terrain in southeast Arizona may result in congealing outflow
with a damaging wind threat as storms move generally
west-northwestward through the evening.

..Guyer/Kerr.. 08/25/2025

$$
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