928 
FXUS64 KMRX 280638
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
238 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Dry conditions will continue for the next several days with mild 
  highs in the 70s and seasonally cool lows in the 40s. 

- Relative humidity values will drop into the 30s during the 
  afternoon and early evening hours but with very light winds. 

- Rain chances return late Halloween night into Sunday. Strong
  winds are also possible the mountains and foothills. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 133 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Currently, an upper ridge is centered to our east with over 1,030mb 
surface high pressure in New England. This pattern will promote 
continued dry weather and highs in the 70s after a cool morning. 
Daytime mixing will also allow for RH values to drop into the 30s 
but with a weak MSLP gradient and low-level flow limiting winds. By 
Thursday, the ridge becomes suppressed with high pressure remaining 
across the eastern U.S. Overall, the pattern will remain the same 
with overall seasonal temperatures and similarly low RH values. 
Heading into Friday, a shortwave will eject out of the Rockies, 
leading to increasing ridging over the region. Height rises will 
likely allow for temperatures to rise further into the 70s than 
recent days. 

For Halloween, the shortwave will approach from the west with 
surface high pressure strengthening and progressing off to our 
northeast. It is then expected to deepen overnight before reaching 
the area on Sunday, bringing rainfall by early morning. Exact timing 
of onset remains uncertain, but the best chances for the evening of 
Halloween are in southeast Tennessee and the Plateau. Strong winds 
are also possible in the mountains as guidance suggests 
southeasterly 850mb flow over 40 kts with a strong MSLP gradient due 
to the high to the northeast. This will limit rainfall totals 
further east, but rainfall is needed due to ongoing drought. After 
the shortwave progresses east on Monday, drier weather will return 
before another potential system by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

High clouds and even mid clouds are streaming across the eastern
part of the state this morning. This may or may not impact fog
potential later this morning. Surface high pressure and upper 
level ridging will continue to dominate the pattern through the 
next 24 hours. Thus, light winds or calm conditions and dry 
weather can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  49  76  49 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  74  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  45  74  43 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BW
AVIATION...KS


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