ACUS01 KWNS 091235
SWODY1
SPC AC 091234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible from the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest as well as across portions of the Midwest and central
Plains. Severe storms are not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Shortwave trough currently moving through the northern Plains is
forecast to continue southeastward throughout the day, reaching the
Mid MS Valley by early tomorrow. Some modest amplification of this
shortwave is expected as a jet streak progresses through it base. An
attendant surface low, currently over southeast NE, will move
eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave, reaching the Mid MS
Valley tonight and the middle OH Valley by early tomorrow morning.
An associated cold front will push southeastward through MO, KS and OK.

Limited moisture return will keep buoyancy muted ahead of the front,
keeping the potential for surface-based thunderstorm development
along the front low. Cooling mid-level temperatures and moistening
low/mid-levels will likely result in isolated elevated thunderstorms
across IL during the early evening. Persistent warm-air advection
along the front should allow for isolated thunderstorms to continue
throughout the evening and overnight across central/southern IN, KY,
and western/middle TN. An isolated instance or two of small hail is
possible but any severe threat should be tempered by limited
buoyancy.

Farther west, a separate, lower amplitude shortwave trough is
expected to move eastward from the northern Rockies into the
northern/central Plains. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
shortwave will spread into the northern and central Plains near peak
heating. Modest airmass destabilization is anticipated from the
Black Hills across NE where deep mixing is likely, as well as
farther north from eastern MT/western ND into MN where cold
mid-level temperatures are expected. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible within these corridors. Overall severe potential will be
very low, but the high-based character of these storms could result
in a strong downdraft or two.

..Mosier/Kerr.. 04/09/2025

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