ACUS02 KWNS 160558
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low centered across the western Great Lakes Saturday
morning will shift east through the day and move over the Northeast
by 12Z Sunday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will expand south
from the southern Great Lakes to the Southeast. Farther west, a
weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance from northern
Mexico into the Southern Plains. A mid-level jet streak associated
with this mid-level shortwave trough will overspread portions of
central/northern Texas and into Oklahoma on Saturday. A strong
mid-level jet streak will move into the Intermountain West on
Saturday and amplify a trough across the western CONUS.

...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.
This convection and cloudcover associated with it, casts
considerable uncertainty on destabilization, particularly across the
Northeast. However, mid-60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the
cold front as it moves eastward through the day. This moisture,
combined with cooling temperatures aloft. Could be sufficient for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.

The most favorable zone for severe storms will likely exist across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. This zone is far
enough south to likely remain mostly cloud free which will promote
surface heating and destabilization. In addition, the stronger
mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region which would
support storm organization and the potential for supercells. Given
the greater instability and shear with potential for supercell storm
mode, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear most likely within
this region.

...Southeast...
The cold front will likely become stalled across the Southeast on
Saturday. South of this front, moderate to strong instability is
forecast with 50 knots of flow parallel to the boundary. Forcing
will remain weak along this boundary with minimal surface
convergence and mostly neutral heights aloft. Therefore, storms are
possible along this boundary, and could be supercellular if they
form, but coverage should be isolated if any storms form at all
given the weak forcing.

...Central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across central/northern
Texas Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s and 500mb temperatures around -10C. Weak
large scale forcing will overspread the dryline during the afternoon
as a right entrance region of the upper-level jet overspreads
northern Texas. Any subtle large scale forcing will likely be
sufficient for rapid storm development along the uncapped
dryline/triple point in north-central Texas by mid-afternoon. Large
hail (some 2+ inch) will be the initial threat from supercells along
the dryline. However, CAM signals suggest a combination of left and
right-moving supercells congealing into a cluster/MCS rather quickly
with an increasing severe wind threat. These mode concerns limit
higher hail/tornado probabilities at this time, despite a very
unstable and strongly sheared environment across the region.

Additional supercells may develop Saturday evening and into early
Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks as isentropic
ascent increases with the strengthening low-level jet. These storms
will pose a primary threat of large hail.

...Utah into Southeast Idaho and Southwest Wyoming...
Rapidly cooling temperatures aloft across the Great Basin on
Saturday will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A
deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for
severe wind gusts from the stronger cores.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

$$
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