ACUS03 KWNS 160732
SWODY3
SPC AC 160731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on
Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
An upper-level trough will continue to amplify across the
Intermountain West on Sunday with a leading mid-level shortwave
trough forecast to emerge into the central Plains during the
afternoon and evening. At the surface, a low 990s mb surface low is
forecast to develop in the eastern Colorado/western Kansas vicinity.
A dryline will extend south from this surface low with a warm front
extending east into the Southeast.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Low to mid 70s dewpoints will advect poleward east of a sharpening
dryline across the central Plains Sunday morning/early afternoon.
This, combined with strong heating, will result in strong to very
strong instability across Oklahoma and into southern Kansas with
moderate to strong instability across eastern Kansas. As a mid-level
shortwave trough emerges over the Plains, inhibition will erode
along the dryline with storm development possible during the
afternoon. Deep layer shear will support supercells as the primary
storm mode with potential for large hail. As the low-level jet
strengthens through the day, the low-level hodographs will elongate
and result in an increasing tornado threat, including the potential
for strong tornadoes.

Confidence in storm coverage is highest across Kansas near the
triple point. While some uncertainty remains where the warm
front/dryline intersection will be, it will likely be somewhere near
central Kansas. An enhanced risk (Level 3 out of 5) has been added
across Kansas and into northern Oklahoma where the confidence for
storm coverage is highest. However, it is important to note that
storms could be equally as intense within the slight risk area
across Oklahoma as storm coverage concerns are the only limiting
factor to higher severe weather probabilities at this time.

...Southeast...
Isolated storms will be possible along the frontal zone from the
Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong
instability and strong shear will be in place along the frontal
zone. However, forcing should be weak, so storm coverage is
uncertain at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)