ACUS02 KWNS 270554
SWODY2
SPC AC 270552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE ARKLATEX...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, with an isolated severe wind and hail threat,
are possible across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will amplify along the East Coast as an upper
ridge builds across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). A
mid-level impulse will rotate around the upper trough and traverse
the southern Plains/Southeast through the period, encouraging the
southward sagging of a surface cold front. Multiple rounds of
thunderstorms are likely across portions of the southern Plains into
the Arklatex ahead of this front. The best chance for stronger
thunderstorms will be during the afternoon, where storms will
benefit from an optimal combination of modest buoyancy and vertical
wind shear.

...Southern High Plains into the Arklatex...
An MCS will likely be ongoing at the start of the period somewhere
along the eastern fringes of the southern Plains. An outflow
boundary is expected to sag southward, in tandem with or just ahead
of the aforementioned cold front, acting as a source of lift to
rejuvenate thunderstorm activity with afternoon heating. Surface
temperatures will warm into the 90s F amid upper 60s to 70 F surface
dewpoints, yielding over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Southwesterly surface
winds, veering to northwesterly while strengthening with height,
will support 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear. Any storms that
redevelop along the aforementioned outflow boundary in this
environment could become strong, from central OK to the AR/LA
border. A few of the more intense storms may be accompanied by an
isolated severe wind/hail threat, warranting the introduction of
Category 1/Marginal risk probabilities.

..Squitieri.. 08/27/2025

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