AWUS01 KWNH 161137
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0275
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
737 AM EDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas through Central Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 161134Z - 161630Z

Summary...Repeating heavy thunderstorms continue developing from
northeast Arkansas through central Kentucky this morning. While
movement of cells remains progressive, cell mergers and repeating
activity makes flash flooding possible.

Discussion...Numerous supercells have developed ahead of a
stationary front over northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel
and western Kentucky. Gulf-sourced moisture (PW of 1.8" is
pooling along the front with higher instability (MUCAPE >2000
J/kg) and powerful deep layer WSWly flow (60kt) allowing for heavy
repeating cells. Rainfall up around 1.5" in the past hour as been
estimated from the heaviest cells which have large hail. The 09Z
RRFS is decent with its current depiction with a diurnal increase
in coverage through the rest of the morning. Flow parallel to the
front will allow repeating storms.

Flash flood guidance is 1.5 to 2" per hour, so flash flooding
should be limited to where repeating heavy activity occurs.

Jackson

ATTN...WFO...ILN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   38448437 37168364 36478611 35728928 35169145 
            35639212 36189161 36758983 37338844 38108616 
            
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