MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

ACUS11 KWNS 161240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161240 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-161445-

Mesoscale Discussion 0807
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Areas affected...northeast AR into central KY

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259...

Valid 161240Z - 161445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259 continues.

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm cluster may continue to pose a risk for hail
and sporadic strong gusts this morning. Local watch extension may be
needed for portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 259.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue from northeast
AR into central KY this morning. While previously a new watch was
considered, given some weakening in the clusters across central KY,
local watch extensions may be more appropriate as uncertainty in
downstream evolution has increased. Nevertheless, a favorable
environment will persist, supporting a continued large hail risk in
the short term. If further upscale growth occurs with ongoing
clusters, a risk for damaging gust potential could increase later
this morning or toward midday downstream from WW 259. Local watch
extensions for 1-2 hours may be need if current trends persist for
another 30-60 minutes.

..Leitman.. 05/16/2025

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   35859123 36958951 37858730 38108569 38108488 37628479
            37108553 36058880 35559013 35419106 35469128 35859123 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

$$
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