656 
FXUS64 KMRX 290625
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
225 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Dry conditions will continue for the next several days with mild 
  highs in the 70s and seasonally cool lows in the 40s. 

- Medium rain chances for only light rainfall on Sunday and Sunday 
  night, mainly south of Knoxville.

- A return to dry and mild weather for the first couple of days
  next week.
  

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

It will get slightly warmer over the next couple of days, leading to 
a pleasant Halloween weekend. Low level ridge will remain parked 
over the Mid-South region as we head into Saturday, keeping the 
weather dry and peaceful. Still could see patchy fog each morning, 
primarily near the rivers and lakes. 

Looking towards the weekend, Halloween itself is likely to be dry 
for candy hunting, frights and thrills, and costume parties. A 
subtle shortwave arrives on Sunday, but poor moisture return means 
any rainfall is likely to remain on the lighter side. Euro and the 
AI guidance suite both keep the better rain amounts south of the 
Tennessee - Georgia state line, but light rain amounts may still 
fall in East Tennessee. Think the northern extent of the rain 
chances may be overdone, given the dryness we're currently in and 
the QPF model fields, but I only made minor trims to the PoPs. High 
temperatures on Sunday are likely to be more muted thanks to the 
widespread cloud cover.

Next week we will likely see another couple dry fall weather days, 
leaning on the more mild side similar to this past week. Midweek 
into late week ensemble guidance depicts potential for a southern US 
trough that will be the next system to watch to fill our growing 
need of rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Mid to high clouds moving northeasterly at this time. It could
affect localized fog development before sunrise, however, there's
still a chance of ground or elevated fog nearby. Broad upper 
level ridging and surface high pressure centered overhead, will 
continue to provide dry conditions with light and variable day- 
time winds later today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             76  50  78  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  48  78  54 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       75  47  77  55 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  44  77  50 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...KS


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