AWUS01 KWNH 280906
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-281505-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1018
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
505 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Areas affected...Southern KS...North-Central to Northeast OK...Far
Southwest MO...Northwest to Central AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 280905Z - 281505Z

SUMMARY...Organized clusters and bands of showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the morning hours. A
combination of localized cell-training and heavy rainfall rates
will likely result in areas of flash flooding. Locally significant
urban flooding impacts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with
dual-pol radar shows organized clusters of elevated convection
evolving across portions of central and southern KS on down into
northern OK. Additional elevated bands of convection are also
noted well off to the southeast down across northwest to central
AR. The activity early this morning is being strongly supported by
the east-southeast advance of weak mid-level shortwave energy
interacting with a stationary frontal zone and the nose of 40+ kt
southwest low-level jet overrunning it.

A corridor of stronger speed convergence and with proximity of an
elevated instability gradient over southern KS in particular has
allowed for convection across these areas to gain substantial
organization over the last couple of hours with heavy rainfall
rates that are reaching upwards of 2 inches/hour with the stronger cells.

Enhanced warm air advection/isentropic ascent across this region
to the northeast of the aforementioned front should maintain
convection over the next several hours, but with a gradual
tendency for the convection to lose some latitude while also
advancing off to the east. MUCAPE values are rather modest with
values of 500 to 1000 K/kg, but the increase in low-level moisture
transport and related speed convergence is expected to help
compensate and continue to support locally high rainfall rates
along with a generally organized axis of convection.

The 00Z HREF/REFS suites of guidance are still likely too far to
the north and east with their axis of heavier QPF this morning,
and perhaps a tad too heavy. Recent runs of the HRRR, RRFS and
WoFS all suggest more of a northwest to southeast axis of heavy
rains that impacts southern KS into north-central and northeast OK
going through the morning hours. Heavy rains will also be likely
well off to the southeast across northwest to central AR and
perhaps brushing somewhat into far southwest MO. Additional
localized rainfall totals of as much as 3 to 5+ inches of rain
will be possible, and especially with a favorable environment for
cell-training.

Given the elevated rainfall rates and storm totals that are
expected this morning, areas of flash flooding are likely. This
may include a locally significant urban flooding impact.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...ICT...LZK...OUN...SGF...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON   38069692 37859541 37269390 36169258 34639123 
            33849142 33809223 34279317 34849419 35489588 
            35739722 36019904 36329971 36750004 37429999 
            37789949 38019828 

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