ACUS02 KWNS 290518
SWODY2
SPC AC 290516

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of southern/central Arizona on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and large
hail will be possible with the strongest storms.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave disturbance will migrate through larger-scale
ridging over the Plains on Friday. This shortwave trough will lift
slowly northeast from the southern Rockies/Rio Grande vicinity to
the Mid/Lower MO Valley by early Saturday. Further west, another
mid/upper trough off the Pacific coast will pivot northeast across
the Lower CO Valley and Four Corners vicinity. Widespread showers
and thunderstorm activity are expected with these features, though
severe thunderstorm potential will be focused across AZ.

...AZ...

Mid/upper south/southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt will overspread
50s to low 60s F dewpoints Friday morning into the afternoon.
Diurnal heating may be muted in some locations due to early
thunderstorm development and cloudiness. Nevertheless, cool
temperatures aloft (around -12 to -15 C at 500 mb) will support
500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing
in speed in the midlevels, will result in 20-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes and modestly elongated hodographs. While muted heating
will limit stronger destabilization, and the expected widespread
nature of convection may quickly lead to convective overturning, at
least some risk of severe wind/hail will accompany stronger, better
organized convection through early evening, particularly across
southern to central AZ.

..Leitman.. 10/29/2026

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