ACUS03 KWNS 170740
SWODY3
SPC AC 170739

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH
TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from
portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on
Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly
east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline
will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor
into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface
low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into
the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north
through the day.

...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest...
Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and
into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of
the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow
overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense
supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of
shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely
within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern
Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The
weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level
jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary
uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into
one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat.

Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front
overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma.
Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend
greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection.
Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected,
more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore,
between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential
for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe
thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat
continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening.

..Bentley.. 05/17/2025

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