Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 30 2026 - 00Z Sun Nov 01 2026

...Heavy rainfall likely across parts of the Southern Plains into
Friday, and the Southwest on Friday and Saturday...


Moisture flowing into the Southern Plains from Tropical Storm
Vance will continue to bring a heavy rainfall threat to parts of
west and central Texas and Southeastern New Mexico. Several inches
of rainfall is possible through Friday for west-central Texas, with
lesser amounts extending northward into western Oklahoma as well.
WPC highlights a large area from southeast New Mexico into west-
central Texas within a Slight Risk. The flow will gradually shift
eastward with showers and thunderstorms extending into the rest of
the Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday as it
interacts with a frontal boundary draped across the region.

Additional tropical Pacific moisture streaming into California and
the Southwest to the south of a large trough moving into the West
will increase precipitation across the Southwest by Friday and
especially through the weekend. Much of this region is highly
susceptible to rainfall given how wet it has been lately. The WPC
Excessive Rainfall Outlook shows a Slight Risk across parts of
south-central Arizona for Friday and Saturday, with a broader
Marginal Risk from parts of southern California to western Texas.

A deep upper low off the Pacific Northwest coast will linger
through the period, providing some moisture into this region. Snow
is likely in the mountains, with over a foot of snow in the highest
elevations (mostly above 9000 feet). Rain and Mountain snow will
expand across the West on Saturday as well.


Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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