840 
FXUS64 KMRX 291722
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
122 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 103 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Dry conditions will continue for the next several days with mild 
  highs in the 70s and seasonally cool lows in the 40s. 

- Chance of light rain on Sunday and Sunday night, mainly in the
  Plateau and southern TN Valley.

- A return to dry and mild weather for the first couple of days
  next week, then rain chances return for midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

For the next few days, the pleasant fall weather will continue. A
mid/upper level shortwave ridge will be crossing the region
through Friday, with a low level ridge over the Appalachians. The
main concern each day will be early morning fog, primarily near 
area lakes and rivers. 

The upper ridge shifts east and a shortwave trough approaches 
from the west on Sunday. Moisture and lift will be mainly in the
mid and upper levels, while the sub-850 mb layer remains dry for
the eastern half of the area. Some light rain will likely reach 
the ground in the Plateau and southern TN Valley, maybe a tenth to
a quarter inch, but NE sections will probably only see a trace to
a couple hundredths through Sunday night. Overcast mid/high clouds
on Sunday will hold high temperatures back in the 60s in most 
spots.

Dry and mild conditions return Monday and continue through at
least Tuesday, possibly Wednesday. Another stronger system may
bring higher rain chances to the area late Wednesday and 
Thursday. The ECMWF shows a deep, negatively tilted trough 
crossing the Plains and MS Valley in this time frame. One thing to
keep an eye on with this system will be mountain wave winds, 
mainly Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Not much has changed in the weather pattern over the past few
days, so fog will be possible again at CHA and TRI tonight. There
is a chance that high clouds spreading over the area may reduce 
fog potential tonight, which raises uncertainty. For now, will
include a TEMPO at both sites for a little MVFR fog, but lower
conditions are certainly possible with later TAF issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             50  79  56  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  48  78  54  75 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       47  77  54  74 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              43  76  49  72 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


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