441 
FXUS64 KMRX 301055
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
655 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Medium rain chances for only light rainfall on Sunday and Sunday 
night, west and south of Knoxville.

- A return to dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next 
week.

- Low to medium chances for additional rainfall and gusty mountain
  winds Wednesday into Friday. Details later.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Not too many changes with the forecast, patchy river fog each 
morning continues to be a possibility. Temperatures will remain mild 
for the forecast period, except excessive cloudiness on Sunday will 
yield a completely average start to November. Dry weather is likely 
for all the dressed up trick-or-treaters, maybe someone will be 
dressed up as a weather radar this year!

Looking towards the weekend, Halloween itself is likely to be dry 
for candy hunting, frights and thrills, and costume parties. A 
subtle shortwave arrives on Sunday, but poor moisture return means 
any rainfall is likely to remain on the lighter side. Guidance has 
continued the trend of keeping the rain extremely limited in both 
amounts and areal scope, and the NBM has finally caught on to my 
expectations. High temperatures on Sunday are likely to be more 
muted thanks to the widespread cloud cover.

Next week we will likely see another couple dry fall weather days, 
leaning on the more mild side similar to this past week. Midweek 
into late week ensemble guidance continues to depict potential for a 
southern US trough that will be the next system to watch to fill our 
growing need of rain. The last several runs of both physics based 
and AI guidance indicate potential for mountain wave winds with this 
system, so something to watch for both rain and wind potential. 
Since we're still 5 days out, just a watch and see to see if we can 
both realize these hazards and narrow down the timing for overall 
passage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 651 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Patchy fog has developed at CHA with no development at TRI as of
right now. This will be something to watch for the next hour or
two, but otherwise, northeasterly winds and limited cloud cover
are expected through the day. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  56  75  57 /   0   0   0  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  53  76  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  54  74  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  48  72  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wellington
AVIATION...BW


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