ACUS48 KWNS 260849
SWOD48
SPC AC 260848

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Day 4/Tuesday - West Texas to the Northeast...
Moderate instability will be present along an elongated frontal zone
from the southern Plains to the Northeast on Tuesday. Modest shear
along the frontal zone will support some organization into multicell
clusters and perhaps supercells. A greater severe weather threat
will exist across the eastern Great Lakes where forcing and shear
will be strongest as a 75 knot mid-level jet streak crosses southern
Ontario.

Another focused zone of greater coverage of severe storms will be
across parts of West Texas where multiple rounds of storm are
anticipated. The first chance of storms will be during the afternoon
as the front continues to move south across Oklahoma and perhaps
into North Texas. An additional round of storms will be possible
across parts of West Texas as the low-level jet strengthens Tuesday
night in the presence of strong instability and shear.

...Day 5/Wednesday - North Texas to the ArkLaTex...
Ongoing Day 4 convection may have some impact on the exact location
of the severe weather threat on Tuesday. However, regardless of Day
4 convective evolution, there will likely be a region with a more
focused severe weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday where moderate to
strong instability exists ahead of strengthening mid-level flow and
a mid-level trough which will move across the southern Plains. 15%
probabilities have been added for Day 5 from North Texas to the
ArkLaTex where this location of greatest severe weather threat
appears most likely at this time.

..Bentley.. 04/26/2025

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