Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 31 2026 - 00Z Mon Nov 02 2026

...First wave of heavy rainfall moving through the Four Corners
through Saturday morning...

...A second wave of more widespread heavy rain threat reaches
southern California and Desert Southwest Saturday evening followed
by northward expansion into the Great Basin and Four Corners Sunday
morning...

...Locally heavy rainfall shifting gradually eastward from the
southern Plains to the Gulf Coast states this weekend...

An increasingly wet weather pattern is in store across the
Southwest this weekend and the Gulf Coast states as a dry weather
pattern continues over much of the eastern U.S. The impetus for the
wet weather pattern in the West is a broad upper-level trough
lifting sub-tropical moisture especially into the Southwest. The
first wave of moisture is already in place to bring locally heavy
rain through tonight across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, a
low pressure wave now developing between Hawaii and Baja California
is heading toward southern California. The Southwest will spend much
of Saturday in a lull of precipitation as the first wave of
moisture departs but the low pressure wave approaching the Pacific
coast will deliver a trick for the Southwest by Halloween night as
the second wave of rain reaches southern California. Saturday night
into Sunday morning will see this second wave of rainfall quickly
expanding north and northeastward through the Southwest, into the
Great Basin and toward the Four Corners, with heavy rainfall
increasing especially along the Mogollon Rim in Arizona.

Meanwhile, another corridor of moderate rainfall across the
southern Plains will gradually shift eastward to reach the Gulf
Coast states this weekend. The greatest threat of heavy rainfall will
be associated with heavier showers and thunderstorms near the Gulf
Coast region. These showers and storms will continue to shift
slowly east to reach the Florida Panhandle and northward up the
Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Lingering thunderstorms near
the tail end of an old front will maintain isolated flash flooding
potential for South Florida into the weekend. In contrast, a high
pressure system will provide dry weather for much of the eastern
U.S. into the weekend with colder than normal conditions in New
England but milder than normal to the south.

Over the Sierra and Great Basin, snowfall will expand late
tomorrow and Sunday as the West Coast upper-low and the approaching
Pacific system interact. Over a foot of snowfall could result in
the peaks of the terrain through late Sunday.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)