709 
FXUS64 KMRX 301754
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
154 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

- Medium chance of light rain in the southern Pleateau and
  southern TN Valley on Sunday and Sunday night; most of the area
  stays dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds around mid
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A mid/upper ridge over the area today will slowly shift east
tonight, bringing increasing high clouds ahead of a shortwave
trough over the Plains. Some light precip with this trough will
enter our southwest counties late Saturday night to early Sunday
morning. Moistening of the column will be from the top down, but
most of the area will maintain a dry layer beneath ~700 mb. Only
the southern Plateau and southern Valley are expected to see any
measureable precip on Sunday (only a couple hundredths), with 
only virga or a few sprinkles elsewhere. 

An increasingly amplified pattern develops early next week, with a
ridge east of the MS River and a deep trough over the Plains. This
will provide dry and mild weather for Monday and Tuesday, with
rain chances returning Wednesday as the trough shifts east of the
MS River. This has the potential to be a dynamic system, as it
develops a negative tilt and favorable upper jet positioning to
enhance QG forcing. A couple possible impacts to watch for with 
this system may be mountain wave winds, possibly starting Tuesday 
night, and a QLCS along the cold front Wednesday/Wednesday night 
(instability will be a limiting factor for the severe potential). 
At the least, it could bring some beneficial rainfall to help 
mitigate the drought conditions. Confidence this far out remains
too low to highlight any specific impacts in the HWO, but the 
wording will be changed to "low proabaility". 

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

High clouds will be increasing across the area tonight, and there
may be some light NE winds, which should prevent fog development 
at the terminals. VFR conditions are forecast through this period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  56  75  57 /   0   0   0  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  78  53  76  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       77  54  74  56 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              76  48  72  51 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DGS
AVIATION...DGS


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