277 
FXUS64 KMRX 310641
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
241 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 240 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Medium chance of light rain in the southern Plateau and 
  southern TN Valley on Sunday and Sunday night; most of the area 
  stays dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds around mid
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Our stretch of quiet and dry weather is at the beginning of the 
end. An expansive surface high pressure over the Great Lakes 
region will slowly drift toward the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. 
This will keep the region dry and temperatures mild for Halloween.
Saturday will be pleasant. Winds will gradually shift from 
easterly to southeasterly as mid to high level cloud deck builds 
in. This will support a mostly cloudy day with filtered sunshine -
a treat for our trick-or-treaters! Temperatures will top out in 
the low to mid 70s Saturday afternoon with temps falling into the 
upper 50s Saturday evening. It'll remain dry with near-zero chance
of rain. 

A weak shortwave will track from the southern Plains into the region 
on Sunday. This will lead to an increase in moisture ahead of the 
disturbance, but the residual dry air in place from the long stretch 
under the influence of the high pressure will limit precipitation 
chances until late Sunday into Monday. The primary precipitation 
mechanism is tied to broad isentropic lift that should slowly 
saturate the dry air and support isolated to scattered showers late 
Sunday into Sunday night. Any rain that falls will be generally 
light and insignificant given the low level dry air eating into 
sensible perception. 

The first week of November will bring a legitimate pattern change 
across the CONUS. Guidance support a more amplified look that'll 
lead to more precipitation chances locally. For Monday & Tuesday, 
ridging will build in and return the familiar warm & dry weather 
back to the region. Upstream, a potent trough will dig into the 
Plains and begin the slow trek eastward. This system and the 
associated surface cold front arrives sometime Tuesday night into 
Wednesday morning and will bring much needed rain across the TN 
Valley. While instability looks rather meager at this time (limiting 
severe potential), sufficient synoptic forcing along the pre-frontal 
trough should support some thunderstorms and widespread rainfall. 
Behind the front Thursday into Friday, northwest flow aloft will 
usher in cooler air that will support more seasonable temperatures 
for the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected with light and
variable winds and some high clouds overnight. Heading into the
day on Saturday, winds will become more southeasterly at CHA,
potentially above 10 kts and then more northeasterly at TYS.
Clouds will increase, mainly above 10,000 feet AGL. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             75  57  67  55 /   0  10  30  30 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  76  56  70  53 /   0   0  10  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  55  68  52 /   0   0  10  20 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              73  51  70  50 /   0   0   0  10 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW


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