Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 01 2026 - 00Z Tue Nov 03 2026

...Heavy rain threat renews over southern California and Desert
Southwest this evening; impactful flash flooding expected in the
Great Basin and Four Corners Sunday...

...Heavy rainfall threat along the east coast of Florida Sunday
and Monday...

...Intensifying low pressure system will bring widespread gusty
winds across the Great Plains on Monday with locally heavy rain and
possibly severe thunderstorms...


A low pressure system developing off Baja California will merge
with a broad upper-level trough moving onshore into the West Coast
to bring a round of widespread unsettled weather through much of
the interior western U.S. on Sunday, shifting east into much of
the Great Plains on Monday. The Southwest is currently in a
precipitation lull this Halloween afternoon. But heavy rain
associated with this tricky weather pattern will rapidly overspread
the Four Corners states to usher November on Sunday as the low
pressure system loaded with subtropical moisture slams onshore.
Rainfall amounts upwards of 2-4" along upslope-facing terrain in
these regions could lead to numerous instances of flash flooding on
Sunday especially for areas of saturated soils brought by recent
heavy rainfall. By early on Monday, a rather strong and deep
cyclone is forecast to spin up rapidly over the central High
Plains. Much of the northern Plains will wake up to increasing
winds and rapidly developing showers and embedded thunderstorms to
kick off the work week. The central to southern Plains can expect
to see showers and thunderstorms possibly turning severe later on
Monday with locally heavy rainfall. In addition, portions of the
central Rockies could see heavy snow on the back side of this
system.

Meanwhile, showers and embedded thunderstorms over the central
Plains Saturday afternoon will continue to shift east and
southeast to reach the Florida Panhandle on Sunday. Persistent
onshore flow from a large high pressure system sliding off the East
Coast will bring heavy rainfall threat along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula Sunday and Monday with isolated flash flooding
potential. In contrast, the same high pressure system will provide
dry weather for much of the eastern U.S. with colder than normal
conditions in New England but milder than normal to the south.

Over the Sierra Nevada, wet snow will rapidly develop tonight and
lasting into Sunday as the Pacific low-pressure system slams
onshore. Over a foot of snowfall could result in the peaks of the
terrain through late Sunday.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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