587 
FXUS64 KMRX 311829
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
229 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 226 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Dry and pleasant conditions for outside activities this evening. 

- A 40-60 percent chance of light rain across southeast Tennessee
  and Plateau beginning late tonight through Sunday night. 
  However, most areas remain dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds for mid to
  late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Currently, ridging surface and aloft are producing another dry and 
mild day across the region.  Plenty of high level cloudiness. 
Overall, nice conditions for outside activities this evening. 

For late Tonight through Sunday night, a short-wave will move across 
the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. Pressure falls associated with this 
wave will increase the low-level jet over middle Tennessee into the 
Plateau inducing isentropic lift. Strongest lift will be across the 
Plateu counties and southeast Tennessee. Since moisture return will 
be greatest over these areas, best coverage of showers will be west 
of interstate 75. For areas east of interstate 75, weaker isentropic 
lift and continued dry boundary layer will only allow for areas of 
sprinkles or dry conditions.

A weak mountain wave event will occur across the mountains and 
foothills for tonight and Sunday but sustained wind speed and gusts 
will remain below advisory criteria.

For Monday and Tuesday, upper and surface ridging will produce dry 
and unseasonably warm conditions. Highs will be 5 to 10 degrees 
above normal.

For Tuesday night through Friday, a stronger upper trough will move 
into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. Ensemble 
cluster analysis do show a good deal of variance regarding the 
strength and timing of this system. Main impacts will be much needed 
rainfall for much of the area along with the potential of mountain 
wave downslope winds into the mountains and foothills. Temperatures 
will remain near to slightly above normal.

This system exits the area by next weekend with drier conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Main concern is potential MVFR conditions Sunday due to coverage
of showers reducing visibility to 4-5 miles, mainly for CHA. For
TYS, sprinkles are possible.

Otherwise, VFR conditions. Surface ridging will keep winds mainly
less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             55  64  54  72 /  30  60  30  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  55  67  53  73 /  10  30  20   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       55  65  51  72 /   0  40  30   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  68  50  72 /   0  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...DH


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