ACUS02 KWNS 120519
SWODY2
SPC AC 120518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest during the
day and into the northern Rockies late, with an upper ridge building
from northern Mexico into AZ/NM. Meanwhile, modest westerly flow
aloft will exist over the Northeast as a weak disturbance moves
across AR/MO and into the mid MS/Lower OH Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will exist across the Great Basin with
a southwest flow regime south of the upper trough, with a lee trough
along the length of the High Plains. Increasing boundary layer
theta-e will spread into the High Plains via southeast winds,
resulting in an elongated area of scattered severe storm potential
during the afternoon and evening.

...MT into the central High Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of west-central/southwest MT,
and extending into WY CO and NM, as well as western NE/KS/TX-OK
Panhandles, resulting in steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, southeast
surface winds will bring moisture northwestward into the High
Plains, with a large area of moderate instability developing.

Storms are expected to form by 21Z over western MT, with additional
storms into eastern WY/northeast CO. These will likely produce hail
and areas of damaging wind. Other isolated storms are likely all the
way south into eastern NM/western TX.

Elsewhere, strong instability and ample moisture may result in
scattered strong storms over much of MO, AR, LA, MS and vicinity,
though the likelihood of ongoing early storms and outflows results
in low predictability at this time. Locally strong gusts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$
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