Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Nov 01 2026 - 12Z Tue Nov 03 2026

...Impactful flash flooding expected in the Great Basin and Four
Corners today...

...Heavy rainfall threat along the east coast of Florida through
Monday...

...Intensifying low pressure system brings gusty winds, locally
heavy rain, and severe weather to the Great Plains...

The forecast remains on track for a low pressure system developing
off Baja California to merge with a broad upper-level trough
entering the West Coast. This merger will usher in a round of
widespread unsettled weather through much of the interior West
today, shifting east into the Great Plains on Monday. For today,
the main impacts with this system remain focused over the Southwest
and Four Corners as rainfall coverage and intensity steadily
increase this morning. Storm total rainfall upwards of 2-4" along
upslope-facing terrain in these regions could lead to numerous
instances of flash flooding today, especially for areas of
saturated soils brought by recent heavy rainfall.

By tomorrow, a rather strong and deep cyclone is forecast to spin
up rapidly over the Central High Plains. Much of the Northern
Plains will wake up to increasing winds, showers, and embedded
thunderstorms to kick off the work week. The Central and Southern
Plains can expect to see thunderstorms potentially turn severe
later on Monday with locally heavy rainfall possible. On Tuesday,
a sweeping cold front will shift the focus for unsettled weather
from the Plains into the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. Portions of
the Central Rockies will also have to contend with heavy snow on
the back side of this system, where a Winter Storm Warning and a
handful of Winter Weather Advisories are in effect.

Meanwhile, showers and embedded thunderstorms over the Southeast will
continue to shift toward the Florida Panhandle today. Persistent
onshore flow from a large high pressure system sliding off the East
Coast will bring heavy rainfall threat along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula Sunday and Monday with isolated to scattered flash
flooding potential. In contrast, the same high pressure system
will provide dry weather for much of the eastern U.S. with colder
than normal conditions in New England but milder than normal to the
south.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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