913 
FXUS64 KMRX 011130
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
630 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Chance of Light rain will increase late tonight across southeast 
Tennessee and the Plateau. Chances spread east on Sunday, but most 
areas remain dry.

- Dry and mild weather for the first couple of days next week.

- Increasing chances of rain and gusty mountain winds mid to late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Current regional radar imagery highlights an area of isolated to 
scattered showers approaching from the west. These showers are 
associated with a shortwave trough that will move across the Ohio & 
Tennessee valleys over the next 24 hours. The low level jet will 
begin to ramp up ahead of the approaching system overnight into 
Sunday. This will induce broad isentropic lift over middle TN and 
across the Plateau counties. There remains some uncertainty with how 
far east the precipitation will push on Sunday as residual dry air 
will limit rain due to evaporation. The highest confidence of any 
rainfall is west of interstate 75, but it wouldn't surprise me if 
some sprinkles or brief showers make it east of the interstate. 
Gusty winds will be possible overnight into Sunday as a weak 
mountain wave event unfolds across the mountains and foothills. Wind 
speeds and gusts will remain below advisory criteria. 

The first week of November will be a bit of a roller coaster. Monday 
and Tuesday feature a return to the mild and dry pattern we've 
observed over the past few weeks. The broad surface high pressure 
over the eastern CONUS and west Atlantic will build back into the 
region. Aloft, we'll see upper level ridging return and hold steady 
through Tuesday. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s 
and lows in the 50s. The signs of a pattern change are present 
upstream. An atmospheric river event is unfolding over the SW US and 
the associated upper trough will slowly work it's way east into the 
Plains early week. Ensemble guidance features some spread with 
respect to the intensity, track, and timing of the mid-week system 
and frontal passage. However, there is strong consensus with this 
upper trough bringing the Tennessee valley meaningful rain at some 
point this week. Our upper level trough will cross the Rockies 
Sunday night into Monday. Our associated surface low forms over 
Colorado Sunday night and treks northeast to the Upper Mississippi 
valley by Tuesday night. From there guidance spread increases 
significantly, but the front will move very slowly from middle TN to 
eastern TN Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This front will bring 
much needed rain to the area given how dry it has been this Fall. 
Ensemble probabilities are support a pretty strong signal for at 
least a quarter inch (0.25" or more of rain across the entire CWA. 
The best signal for higher amounts is over our western CWA at this 
time. Our system will also bring another potential mountain wave 
downslope wind event for the mountains and foothills. 

For Friday into next weekend, our temperatures will cool down to 
more seasonable values with highs in the upper 60s and lows back in 
the 40s. Next weekend looks dry, but things could change given the 
uncertainty in timing with the mid week system.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light rain is expected through the day, mainly around CHA, but
reductions are currently unlikely. For all 3 sites, ceilings are
expected to stay around or above 5,000 feet AGL with the most
persistent easterly to southeasterly winds at CHA and TRI. Rain
will decrease tonight but with cloud cover remaining. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  54  74  57 /  60  30   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  67  53  75  50 /  20  30   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       65  51  73  50 /  30  30  10   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              69  50  72  46 /  10  10  10   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW


--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
 * Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)