AWUS01 KWNH 011355
FFGMPD
FLZ000-011645-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1540
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011350Z - 011645Z

Summary...Localized hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will linger 
for up to another 2 to 3 hours across coastal portions of the FL
Panhandle from near Panama City to Apalachicola.

Discussion...A small area of showers/thunderstorms was observed on
KEVX radar imagery over Panama City, FL, slowly dropping south as
of 1330Z. Heavy rain with hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches has
been observed via area gauges resulting in storm total rainfall of
4 to 6+ inches over the past 3-5 hours in Bay County. The area of
heavy rain was located north of a remnant stationary front
positioned ESE to WNW in the northern Gulf with lower level
overrunning of the front within a very moist airmass. PW values of
1.8 to 2.0 inches have resulted in efficient warm rain processes
with freezing levels near 13 kft AGL. Aloft a sharp upper level
trough axis and associated jet max was located just upstream with
strongly divergent and diffluent flow aloft.

The focused cluster of heavy rain was associated with at least one
mesoscale circulation embedded within, which was slowly drifting
south and appears that it will move offshore within the next 30-60
minutes. However, low level winds feeding in from the southeast
may allow for localized heavy rain to continue and possibly impact
locations farther southeast down the coast toward Apalachicola.
Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will continue to be possible
prior to the upper level trough axis shifting east while the jet
max weakens, likely allowing the flash flood threat to wane by
16Z-17Z, although the threat for Panama City appears that it will
end sooner.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   30518570 30378527 30138488 29898464 29578457 
            29358474 29278502 29478585 29878630 30358601

$$
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