ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of isolated large hail and severe
wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana
southeastward into northern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the Great Plains,
marginally severe storms will be possible. A few severe wind gusts
may also occur from parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Northern Plains/Northern Nebraska...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central and
northern High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough rides
up and over the ridge. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop
over Wyoming, with upslope flow remaining over much of the northern
Plains. A moist airmass will be located from eastern Montana into
the Dakotas and Nebraska, where moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher
terrain of the northern High Plains, with additional storms possible
further east into parts of the Dakotas. NAM forecast soundings late
Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking near
4000 J/kg with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment should
support supercell development, with large hail and wind damage being
possible. A tornado could also occur. The severe threat will likely
persist into the evening, as low-level flow gradually increases
across the region.

...Southern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
A moist airmass will remain in place across much of the southern and
central Plains on Sunday. Surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to
the mid 70s F will contribute to the development of strong
instability across parts of this airmass by afternoon. In spite of a
lack of large-scale ascent, isolated convective initiation will be
possible as surface temperatures peak in the afternoon. The most
likely location for storm development would be along or near any
residual outflow boundary. Forecast MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderate
deep-layer shear would support an isolated severe threat. Hail and
marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a
moist airmass is forecast over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.
As surface temperatures warm in the late morning and early
afternoon, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of the southern and central Appalachians. As this convection moves
eastward into the lower elevations, thunderstorms are expected to
form. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively
weak, moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could be
sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2025

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