554 
FXUS64 KMRX 012332
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
632 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Chances for light rain showers continue this afternoon and 
  overnight, majority of the area stays dry though. 

- Breezy mountain winds continue through midweek. 

- Dry and above normal temperatures Monday through Tuesday.

- Increasing chances of rain again with a midweek system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light showers remain ongoing across portions of the area and
continue overnight. The best chances for rain remain across the 
Cumberland Plataea and southern TN Valley. Amounts less than one 
tenth are expected for areas that do see rain. Elsewhere, mostly 
dry conditions are in place outside of a few passing sprinkles, 
due to the dry air at the surface. Downsloping winds across the 
east TN mountains are keeping areas east of I-75 mostly dry. 
Additionally, mountaintop winds will remain breezy due to a 
persistent, southeast, 850mb jet of around 30kts. Our highest 
elevations, such as Cove Mountain, will continue to see gusts 
between 30 and 40 mph through Monday morning.

To start the week, high pressure is anchored in place across the 
Coastal Carolinas. Meanwhile, an upper trough will slowly advance 
toward the region through Wednesday. This setup will allow for an 
increased pressure gradient to remain in place across the region, 
and therefore an increased 850 mb jet of around 30 to 40 kts. This 
means mountaintop winds will continue to be breezy through 
midweek. Cove Mountain may occasionally gust to 40 mph, or 
slightly above, but non-advisory gusts are mostly expected. High 
pressure will also help to keep us dry until Wednesday's frontal 
boundary moves into the area. We can also expect above normal 
temperatures due to rising heights with highs in the mid to upper
70s, which is around 10 degrees above normal. This puts us only a
few degrees below our record highs for this time of year, which 
are in the lower 80s.

Chances for rain increase on Wednesday as a frontal boundary moves 
through the area. Chances for rain remain in place through Thursday 
due to the slow moving boundary. During this time, storm-total 
rainfall amounts will generally range around 1 to 1.25 inches for 
the Cumberland Plateau, central and southern TN Valley, and 
southwest NC. The eastern foothills, northeast TN, and southwest 
VA will see amounts closer to 0.5 to 1 inch. 

We begin to dry out on Friday behind the front with dry 
conditions continuing into the weekend. This also means cooler 
temperatures, with current forecast highs over the weekend in low 
to mid 60s. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light rain will continue for at least a few more hours especially
near TYS and TRI. Cloud cover is expected to linger overnight and
should help limit fog development. VFR conditions are expected. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             54  73  57  77 /  10   0   0   0 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  53  75  51  80 /  20  10   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  73  51  78 /  20  10   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              51  71  47  78 /  10  10   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


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