765 
FXUS64 KMRX 021113
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
613 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 612 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Breezy mountain winds continue through midweek. 

- Above normal temperatures Through Wednesday.

- Rain likely Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Current regional radar highlights scattered showers across the 
Tennessee Valley. Admittedly, these showers overachieved today with 
most locations receiving a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of 
rain. While it's not much, it's more impressive considering the weak 
forcing and low level dry air eating into QPF potential. Showers 
will continue to dissipate as the forcing weakens and shifts 
northeast overnight. Temperatures will fall into upper 40s and lower 
50s tonight with mostly cloudy skies. 

Surface high pressure shifts offshore the Mid-Atlantic on Monday 
while the 500mb pattern becomes increasingly amplified. Mid-level 
ridging builds across the southeastern CONUS with low level warm air 
advection ahead of the mid-week system. This will set the table for 
a mild and dry start with highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 
to mid 50s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday will be the 
focal point of this forecast period as the mid/upper level trough 
over the central Plains moves east toward the Ohio and Tennessee 
river valleys. The associated cold front will slowly trek east on 
Wednesday with rain chances increasing primarily west of interstate 
75 Wednesday afternoon. The beneficial rain will be fueled by an 
impressive surge of anomalous PWATs (+2 std) ahead of the cold 
front. Grand ensemble probabilities of 0.50"+ highlight medium 
confidence (40 to 60 percent) across the area. Rain chances spread 
further east Wednesday night with rain exiting the area by Thursday 
evening. Rainfall amounts will likely range from a quarter inch to a 
half inch with locally higher amounts possible. Thunderstorm chances 
will be low, but non-zero. MUCAPE values in forecast soundings are 
quite low so at most a few rumbles of thunder may be possible. The 
severe risk is negligible. This system will also bring the potential 
for mountain wave downslope winds. EPS and GEFS ensemble 
probabilities support sub-advisory wind gusts (35-45 mph) along the 
mountains and foothills Tuesday night through Thursday afternoon. 

Post FROPA will see the return of drier, more seasonable airmass 
settle in for next weekend. Slight chance pops linger Thursday & 
Friday given northwest cyclonic flow behind the low pressure system, 
but most locations should remain dry. High pressure will begin to 
build in for the weekend and this should return drier weather and 
return more sunshine for the first full weekend of November. Highs 
will be in the low to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to lower 
40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Some fog and low clouds have developed at CHA and could continue
for at least the next hour or two. Otherwise, gradual clearing is
expected through the day with increasing southeasterly winds at
CHA and TRI. VFR is expected to prevail through tonight with
limited fog potential. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             74  58  77  64 /   0   0   0  20 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  51  79  59 /   0   0   0   0 
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  50  77  58 /   0   0   0   0 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              70  47  78  54 /  20   0   0   0 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW


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