ACUS01 KWNS 021234
SWODY1
SPC AC 021233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and
marginally severe hail will be possible this afternoon into the
early evening across parts of the Upper Midwest.

...Upper Midwest...
An upper trough initially over central Canada will dig southeastward
into the Upper Midwest/Lake Superior vicinity during the period.
Showers and weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over MN, aided
by an MCV over northern MN, will gradually dissipate with
differential heating/residual outflow arcing from southern MN
west-northwestward towards the Dakotas/MN border by mid afternoon.
A cold front initially over ND will advance southeastward
into an adequately moist airmass, featuring surface dewpoints in the
lower to mid 60s F ahead of it.  Diurnal heating will likely yield
moderate SBCAPE (1500-2000 J/kg) ahead of the front by mid-late
afternoon.  Model guidance is consistent in showing a band of
scattered thunderstorms developing from the eastern half of SD into
central MN by the mid-late afternoon.  Upscale growth with higher
storm coverage is expected from near the MN/SD border eastward into
central and southern MN during the 22-02 UTC period.  The stronger
mid- and upper-level flow will likely lag behind the surface front
and limit effective shear magnitudes (at or below 25 kt).  However,
a few organized multicells could be associated with isolated severe
wind gusts and hail before this activity subsides during the
early-mid evening.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/02/2025

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