Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 03 2026 - 00Z Thu Nov 05 2026

...Strengthening frontal system will bring gusty winds, locally
heavy rain, and severe weather to the Great Plains and Mississippi
Valley the next couple of days...

...Heavy rainfall threat continues along the east coast of Florida
through this evening...

A deepening low pressure system currently centered over the
central U.S. will be the focus for active weather over the next
couple of days. As the primary low pressure center slowly tracks
northeastward into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, it will
also gain strength and lead to an increasing threat for gusty
winds, locally heavy rain and thunderstorms. Attached to the low
pressure center is a strong north to south cold front which extends
into the southern Plains. Ahead of this front, warm and moist air
streaming northward into the Great Plains will set the stage for a
round of severe thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for
much of the central and southern Plains, with an embedded Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) centered over south-central Kansas and north-
central Oklahoma. Strong, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are
the main concerns. In addition to the severe weather potential,
heavy rain will also lead to a threat of isolated to scattered
flash flooding, particularly where storms repeated track over the
same locations. The focus for severe weather and heavy rainfall
will then shift eastward along and ahead of the cold front into the
Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday, while a cool,
steady rain continues over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
through Wednesday. Rain and storms push into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-South heading into Wednesday as the cold front continues to
march eastward.

Persistent easterly onshore flow south of a large high pressure
system will bring additional heavy rainfall for central and
southern portions of the east coast of Florida into this evening.
Additional rainfall will only exacerbate problems from flooding
that is already occurring in some areas. A Moderate Risk (level
3/4) remains in effect from between Melbourne and Port St. Lucie
where rainfall totals between 5 and 15" have fallen.

Meanwhile, the same high pressure system will maintain dry and
mild weather for much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic though
midweek. Much of the western U.S. will also dry out through
Wednesday after a couple of very wet and stormy days across the
Southwest and Intermountain West.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx...

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