040 
FXUS64 KMRX 022337
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
637 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 626 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Strong gusty winds will be possible in the higher elevations 
  and foothills of the east Tennessee mountains especially Tuesday
  night into Wednesday night. 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase for the Tuesday night into Thursday
  period. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Wednesday
  into Wednesday night. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1251 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

We start the period with surface high pressure centered to our east 
and northeast,  and an upper ridge building across the eastern 
CONUS. This will sponsor a dry short term through Tuesday and it 
will be warm for early November. 

The mid week system still looks to bring a round of precipitation 
primarily Wednesday and Wednesday night, and the potential for 
mountain wave winds in the typical higher elevation areas Tuesday 
night into Wednesday night. 

A mid/upper level trough over the Plains Tuesday will slide east and 
its axis will be centered over our region Friday.  A cold front will 
approach from the west Wednesday before crossing our area Wednesday 
night and likely exiting by early Thursday. Moisture will increase 
ahead of this system, with rain moving in late Tuesday night and 
Wednesday then continuing Wednesday night. Models indicate there 
will be significant shear available, but convective energy still 
looks very limited. Ensemble joint probabilities of at least 500 
J/kg CAPE and 30kt bulk shear are very low Wednesday (around 10 to 
20%) and primarily across the south. While a few thunderstorms will 
be possible, the probability of severe weather still looks low. 
Ensembles do show a medium chance (around 40% to 60%) for a half 
inch or more of needed rain across most of the area. Higher amounts 
are more likely across our south and west areas, with lower amounts 
in the northern and central valley areas as downslope winds limit 
rainfall on the front end of the precipitation in these areas. 

Speaking of the downslope winds we will continue to see some gusty 
winds (mostly sub-advisory) at times in the higher elevations and
foothills through Tuesday as southeasterly low level flow 
continues, but the set up looks more favorable for significant 
mountain wave enhancement of the winds Tuesday night into 
Wednesday night with strong gusty winds possible in the normally 
favored higher elevation and foothill areas of the east Tennessee 
mountains. Right now it looks like advisory level winds are likely
to occur in these higher elevation areas primarily Tuesday night 
into Wednesday night. No wind headlines at this point as a watch 
does not look to be warranted, but an advisory will likely be 
needed as we get closer.

Another short wave will deepen the mid/upper level trough over our 
area Thursday night into Friday, but will have limited moisture to 
work with.  We may see some additional showers Thursday into Friday, 
but precipitation amounts will be on the light side.  

Drier and slightly cooler air will move in for the weekend. Models 
are in poor agreement at the end of the period so uncertainty is 
high, but another mid/upper trough may bring showers again by 
Monday. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue through this TAF cycle.
Southeasterly winds will be a bit gusty tomorrow afternoon mainly
near CHA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             59  77  65  72 /   0   0  60 100 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  51  77  61  75 /   0   0  30  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       51  76  60  73 /   0   0  40  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              45  77  56  75 /   0   0   0  60 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...McD


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