391 
FXUS64 KMRX 031126
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
626 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 623 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong gusty winds will be possible in the higher elevations and 
foothills of the east Tennessee mountains especially Tuesday night 
into Wednesday night. 

- Above normal temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase late Tuesday night into Thursday
  period. A few thunderstorms will be possible mainly Wednesday
  into Wednesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Our weather has returned to a mild & dry look thanks to the 
combination of a sprawling surface high and upper level ridging 
across the eastern CONUS. High temperatures will be in the mid to 
upper 70s Tuesday with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Our next 
system arrives on Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a 
mixture of strong winds in the mountains and foothills and another 
round of beneficial rainfall across the region. Winds will begin to 
increase Tuesday night and peak on Wednesday with gusts up to 
advisory level possible. 

The cold front passage will bring a round of showers with a few 
thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday night. Severe 
weather is not expected. Forecast soundings show limited instability 
(50-150 J/Kg) despite sufficient shear (30+ knots) present. This is 
not enough to get meaningful convection development outside of 
thunder chances. There will be a good surge of moisture associated 
with this system as southerly flow advects higher PW air into the 
region over the next 48 hours. QPF amounts generally range between 
0.25" to 0.75" outside of a few locations with locally higher 
values. At this point though any rainfall is beneficial given how 
dry the last 4 to 6 weeks have been. Our system and front will exit 
the area on Thursday leaving behind northwest flow and cold air 
advection. This will keep afternoon PoPs present on Thursday with 
isolated showers possible. Temperatures will begin to cool as we 
head into the weekend, but the cold air advection isn't that cold. 
We'll ultimately end up with seasonable temperatures with highs in 
the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s Thursday through the weekend. 
Winds will taper off on Thursday as the mountain wave set up 
resolves. The drier, cooler airmass will lead to a rather pleasant 
weekend with mostly sunny skies and comfortable temperatures. 

Looking at the end of the period, there will be another shortwave 
trough that will drop out of the Great Lakes/Upper Midwest Sunday 
night into Monday that will support a chance of precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Overall, quiet aviation conditions are expected throughout the day
with clouds generally around 5,000 to 10,000 feet AGL.
Increasingly breezy conditions are expected, mainly at CHA, as
southeasterly winds increase. Heading into tonight, LLWS will
become more widespread as winds aloft increase significantly. It
is expected to be strongest and earliest at CHA before increasing
at the other two sites. Chances for rain will also increase around
CHA with potential for MVFR by the early morning. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             77  64  71  61 /   0  60 100  60 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  80  61  74  61 /   0  20  90  90 
Oak Ridge, TN                       78  59  72  60 /   0  20  90  90 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              78  56  73  59 /   0   0  70  80 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BH
AVIATION...BW


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