534 
FXUS64 KMRX 032346
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
646 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Strong gusty winds will occur in the higher elevations and 
  foothills of the east Tennessee mountains tonight and Wednesday.
  A Wind Advisory is in effect. 

- Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms expected Wednesday
  into Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging across the eastern US 
keeps us under moderate weather today. Our next system arrives on 
Wednesday into Wednesday night that will bring a mixture of strong 
winds in the mountains/foothills and widespread rain to the southern 
Appalachians. Mountain wave winds out of the southeast will ramp up 
throughout the evening and continue for Wednesday. Expect the 
typical mountain wave locations to see wind gusts of 40-55mph... 
With a few isolated places seeing gusts above 60 in the locations 
that typically get the strongest mountain wave winds like Cove 
Mountain or Camp Creek.

The cold front that is ushering in this rain and wind will move 
through Wednesday into Wednesday night. The dynamics associated with 
this frontal passage look pretty moderate... So expect there to be 
enough instability for thunderstorms, but at this time the chance 
for severe weather is very low. Rainfall with this system is 
expected to be more rain than we've seen in several weeks... 
generally between 0.25" to 0.75". A few locations that get multiple 
heavier thunderstorms could eclipse the 1" threshold, especially 
along areas of increased orographic lift on the western edge of 
ridgetops, plateaus, and mountains. Can't rule out brief flooding of 
low lying or urban areas, but with the lack of rain this Autumn, the 
rivers and streams should be able to handle the anticipated 
rainfall. 

Temperatures will begin to cool as we head into the weekend, and 
we'll return to seasonal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows 
in the 30/40s.. The drier, cooler airmass will return and another 
pleasant weekend of light winds and sunny skies is expected.

Longer term models show a general uptick in the synoptic pattern, so 
it looks like we might be in for a bit more active weather and rain 
chances for November compared the past several weeks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Calming conditions at the TAF sites overnight and an increasing
LLJ, will bring the possibility for LLWS. Rain from a front will 
arrive at CHA sometime before sunrise, then TYS, and finally at 
TRI as the day goes on. Once downslope winds lose their effects, 
lower CIG will move in along with showers. Embedded thunderstorms
possible, but don't have mentioning in this TAF set due to 
uncertainty this far out. Best probability most likely at TYS and 
CHA. Chances for rain and possible storms will continue until the 
end of the TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             65  72  61  75 /  60 100  40  10 
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  63  73  62  74 /  20 100  70  20 
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  71  60  73 /  20  90  80  10 
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  72  60  73 /   0  80  90  30 

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for Blount Smoky 
     Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky 
     Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast 
     Monroe-Unicoi.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...KS


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