ACUS02 KWNS 020552
SWODY2
SPC AC 020551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible on Saturday from the
Southeast to southern New England and across deep South Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will become closed across the Midwest on Saturday
with an associated surface low traversing along the Ohio River. A
cold front will extend southwest from this surface low to South
Texas Saturday morning with the cold front crossing the Appalachians
by Saturday evening.

...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast...
A broad warm sector featuring low to mid 60s dewpoints will be in
place ahead of the aforementioned cold front on Saturday morning.
Convection will likely be ongoing along this front at the beginning
of the period. This convection and associated cloud cover will
likely inhibit destabilization ahead of the front with only weak
instability forecast. Flow will be sufficient for some clusters or
organized bowing segments, but the limited instability will probably
limit a greater threat.

Less cloudcover and greater destabilization is likely east of the
Appalachians which could lead to a locally greater severe weather
threat. Forecast soundings show around 35 to 45 knots of deep layer
shear which could result in some organized storms. However, this
threat should be short-lived as inhibition increases substantially
after sunset.

...Deep South Texas...
The majority of guidance shows the cold front/composite outflow in
the Gulf/northern Mexico by 12Z Saturday, but some guidance (Hires
NAM and somewhat the NSSL-WRF) shows a less progressive/slower
southward movement of the boundary. Therefore, while a marginal
severe weather risk appears less likely across Deep South Texas on
Day 2/Saturday, the threat will be maintained for now since some
guidance indicates the threat could exist and only slight timing
differences from other guidance could result in some threat early on
Day 2.

..Bentley.. 05/02/2025

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