FOUS11 KWBC 040717
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
217 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 04 2026 - 12Z Sat Nov 07 2026

...Central Rockies...
Day 1...

A closed 500mb low tracking east out of the Great Basin will reach
the Central Rockies Wednesday afternoon, bringing an influx of
anomalous moisture to the region. ECMWF guidance shows PWs topping
the 90th climatological percentile traversing the Central Rockies 
Wednesday night. The region also lies beneath the divergent left- 
exit region of a ~110kt 250mb jet streak that will support enhanced
upper-level divergence. In addition, 700mb winds in lee of the CO 
Rockies will gradually increase out of the east as the 700mb low 
tracks over central CO Wednesday afternoon, fostering enhanced
upslope flow along the Front Range. The heaviest snowfall is 
likely to occur as the 700mb low passes through early Wednesday 
evening and coming to an end early Thursday.

Snowfall rates >1"/hr in the Sawatch/Mosquito ranges and into the
higher CO Front Range peaks are likely (>70% per the 00Z REFS) and
could even surpass 2"/hr at times (40-70%). The 00-06Z Thursday 
time period is likely to produce heaviest snowfall totals >8" at 
elevations above 11,000ft in central CO. The closed low will open 
up into a positively-tilted upper trough early Thursday morning and
snowfall rapidly concludes before sunrise Thursday. The PPP shows 
moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall totals >8" in the 
CO mountain ranges above 10,000ft. The peaks of the Sawatch and 
Mosquito Ranges do contain moderate chances (20-50%) for localized 
snowfall totals >12". The WSSI-P shows many of these remote 
mountain ranges as having 30-70% probabilities for Minor Impacts, 
which may include some locally hazardous travel conditions over 
nearby passes. 


The probability of significant ice across the CONUS is less than 10
percent.


Mullinax/Snell


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